Oregon Public Broadcasting

January isn't normally an election month. But you wouldn't know it watching TV in Oregon these days.

Oregonians will soon decide two tax measures. But the budget isn't all that's at stake.

In a year where Republicans are predicting big political gains on the national level, the two tax hikes may serve as an indicator of the mood among Northwest voters. Chris Lehman has more.

In a downtown Salem office building, Republican volunteers are making cold calls to potential voters.

Volunteer Scott Larsen makes a call at a Republican phone bank in Salem.

Scott Larsen:  "Hi there, this is Scott Larsen. I was calling up to see if you were aware of the tax measure 66 vote coming up January 26th?"

The phone bank equipment was paid for by money from the Republican National Committee. The callers are trying to persuade people to vote "no" on a pair of tax increases.

The volunteers don't go into a lot of detail about what the measures do. That's partly because explaining them is a mouthful.

Here's my stab at it: Measure 66 raises income taxes for families that earn more than $250,000.  Measure 67 raises the minimum tax corporations pay from $10 to $150.  It also changes the way most corporations are taxed.

Still with me? Together the tax increases raise more than $720 million to balance the state budget.

Presiding over the volunteers on this shift is Oregon House Minority Leader Bruce Hanna. He hopes voters will backlash against the taxes and turn to the GOP as a result.

Bruce Hanna: "When you look at the way they went about issues, specifically the budget, and you're a business or a professional person, you're now saying 'I can't not get involved.'"

Tax opponents aren't the only ones receiving national money. The Vote Yes campaign is getting six-figure contributions from the national chapters of public employee labor unions. That kind of dough buys a lot of ad time:

Actress in ad:  "Measures 66 and 67 would require banks, credit card companies and the rich to finally pay their fair share of taxes."

Tax supporters say the money will prevent cuts to critical state services such as education, public safety and health care for the poor.

Oregon voters have a track record of rejecting tax increases at the ballot, but Democratic House Speaker Dave Hunt says not this time. And he says approval will be a sign that Oregon voters are satisfied with Democratic leadership.

Dave Hunt:  "If 66 and 67 pass, it will be a re-affirmation that people want to continue to move Oregon forward, and that people are interested in strengthening our schools, and strengthening health care, and strengthening public safety, strengthening infrastructure, making some progressive policy choices going forward."

Hunt is careful to add that he thinks Democrats will do well in November elections regardless of whether the measures pass.

In the short-term, however, the focus is on coaxing a "yes" vote on the two tax measures. As in past elections, that will likely require the support of political independents.

I went in search of independent voters on the streets of Salem. Retired lawyer Don Upjohn says he'll support the measures without hesitation.

Don Upjohn:  "I think the tax has been fairly well crafted to hit people that can support a fairly modest increase. And also I think the corporations historically have been under-taxed in this state.    and I think this is an adjustment that's due regardless."

But Charles Decuman, who's out-of-work, says lawmakers need to make more cuts in state government before he'd support a tax hike.

Charles Decuman:  "They need to come up with better ideas and better solutions."

Whatever happens on January 26th, it's not just Democrats and Republicans in Oregon that see the tax vote as a bellwether.

In the politically charged atmosphere of Washington D.C., Oregon's vote on taxes could be the first skirmish in what promises to a hotly contested election year across the nation.

Ballots for the January 26th election go in the mail Friday.

Information about Measure 66 Information about Measure 67