Oregon Public Broadcasting

The local economy appeared to slow in July, according to an economist at the University of Oregon.

From unemployment claims to residential building permits, economic activity has fallen to levels last seen two years ago.

The University of Oregon's Index of Economic Indicators tracks everything from consumer confidence, to the number of trucking miles driven every month.

And economist Tim Duy says July's figures aren't good.

Tim Duy: "We're moving into what we think of as a jobless recovery, a low growth recovery, where we're having a hard time sustaining sufficient economic momentum to continue to grow jobs at a rapid pace."

So, after improving last winter and spring, Oregon's economy slumped in the summer.

Duy says that in July, activity at temporary hiring agencies dropped. That’s a bad sign, because employers usually take on temporary staff before hiring someone permanently.

Duy  says orders for durable goods also dropped -- suggesting the pace of the recovery in the manufacturing sector is slowing.

And, residential building permits also fell in July -- to their lowest levels in a year.

Tim Duy: "Typically housing markets will rebound out of a recession. And we're not seeing that behavior in this expansion. The housing tax credit has not solved that problem. They've probably just shifted demand around or created an ability to shift houses around but has not really worked to reduce the excess of supply of housing that still seems to be out there."

A robust housing market makes home owners feel secure. But just as important for the economy is a healthy employment rate.

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released a report that found Multnomah, Clackamas and Yamhill counties all have unemployment rates higher than the national average -- of 9.7 percent.

Things are worse across The Columbia River in Washington, where Clark County has a 13 percent unemployment rate.

But Statistics Department spokesman, Amar Mann, warned about getting too discouraged.

Amar Mann: "The situation has improved since last year. Last year the unemployment rate was above 11 percent and today as I said, it's around 10-and-a-half. So, there has been some improvement over the past year."

New unemployment figures for Oregon are due out next week.

A good indicator of where the economy might be headed is initial unemployment claims -- that is the number of people who have signed up for benefits for the first time.

Craig Spivey of Oregon's Employment Department says initial claims have been stuck at the same level for months.

Craig Spivey: "We're kind of at this point here. Where we're bouncing along the bottom. We don't see a huge drop-off right now. And we don't see a huge increase either."

The news is a little better on the national level. Initial unemployment claims dropped by a better than expected 27,000.  And that combined with the biggest drop in the U.S. trade deficit in 17 months, pushed U.S. stocks slightly higher.