Oregon Public Broadcasting

Oregon lawmakers may have to take millions of dollars back from schools, cops, and other state-funded programs this spring.  Or, they might not.

The uncertainty stems from a combination of a quickly widening budget gap and a pending federal economic bailout.

Every day without an answer means the stakes get higher.  Salem correspondent Chris Lehman explains.

Students mingle between classes at Cascade High School near Turner, Oregon.  These hallways will be quieter at the end of this year in the largely rural school district about 15 miles south of Salem.

Students practice band at Cascade High School near Turner, Oregon.

That’s because district officials are facing a quarter-million dollar budget shortfall.  Superintendent Darin Drill said one option rose to the top of their list.

Darin Drill:  “We decided to take some days off.”

Four days, to be exact.  Drill says the furlough and a freeze in equipment purchases should keep the district in the black for the rest of the school year.

Darin Drill: “It gives us a little more than the $255,000 that we need, but we kind of figured things were going to get worse before they get better.”

State budget officials agree.  They predict the state will fall nearly a billion dollars short in projected income tax revenue before the end of June.  

That means the current five percent cut in funding for state agencies could turn into a much deeper rollback.  

On the other hand, it’s looking more likely that Congress will pass a massive economic stimulus package by mid-February.

That could mean $2 billion or more for schools, roads, and human services in Oregon.  That possibility is one reason state lawmakers haven’t mandated any additional cuts to state programs to fill the current gap.

Ashland Democratic Representative Peter Buckley is the co-chair of the Legislature’s budget-writing committee.

Rep. Peter Buckley:  “It is my hope at this point that we can get through this budget cycle by making strategic cuts at the level that we’re making them now, which is five percent.  And then we will cut deeper as we need to if the federal stimulus package does not fill the holes that we have.”

But it’s not clear when the federal stimulus money would actually arrive in Oregon.  

State lawmakers are required to end each two-year period with a balanced budget.  So if the federal money can’t be used before the end of June, that could mean dramatic last-ditch attempts to balance the current budget.  

That could hurt.  A lot.  

One way for lawmakers to avoid making a round of deep cuts would be to tap into state savings accounts.  

Education advocates are urging the Legislature to use Oregon’s rainy day fund.  But Senate President, Democrat Peter Courtney, thinks it’s too soon for that, because the economy could get worse.

Sen. Peter Courtney:  “I don’t want to go there, because I am so afraid of what’s coming. We are sooner or later going to have to go there, but I will tell you, I don’t want to go there right now.”

Back at Cascade High School, it’s time for band practice.  Teachers are bracing for smaller paychecks, but some students aren’t as concerned about fewer days in class.  One of those students is freshman Karl Dotter.  

Karl Dotter: “Even though it is so important I’m pretty sure everyone here would like to get to summer vacation because everyone loves that.” 

For school administrators like Darin Drill, trimming four days from the school calendar isn’t the end of the world.

Especially if it means keeping class sizes low.  But he’s worried that his district will have to make further cuts to balance the books.  And he says those cuts would come at a time when his area is already facing hard times.

Darin Drill:  “We’ve seen an uptick in requests for free and reduced lunches in our district.  That’s certainly of concern for us.  That tells us that our folks are hurting out there.”

Cascade isn’t the only Oregon school system to trim its schedule this year.  A handful of mostly rural districts is also already planning to cut days to save money.  But education advocates say if the federal stimulus package fails to do its job, nearly every district in Oregon may have to close its doors early this year.