Oregon Public Broadcasting

Oregon educators got a double-whammy of bad news today.

At 10 o'clock this morning, the Department of Education released a new report showing that more than one-third of Oregon high school students fail to complete a standard high school diploma on time.

Then a few hours later, school leaders learned they'd be getting less money to fix problems like that graduation rate.  OPB's education reporter, Rob Manning joins me to discuss the new numbers.

Q: So, the new state budget forecast blew a $560 million hole in the state's $12 billion budget. Governor Ted Kulongoski is already asking state agencies – and school districts – to submit new budget plans, with nine percent across-the-board cuts. What's that look like for public schools?

Rob Manning: It means a $237 million cut to the public school system.

And because it comes leading into the second year of a two-year budget cycle, school districts will only have one year to cut it.

The very rough numbers are that it's a cut of $450 per student – that might not sound like a lot, but it adds up fast. For a classroom of 25 first graders, it's more than $11,000.

Q: So what will school districts do?

Rob Manning: Salem-Keizer would have to cut close to $17 million from its budget.

Portland Public is looking at a $19 million reduction, and like most districts, officials there are still getting their heads around the number.

Also like most districts, Portland board members JUST approved its budget – in Portland it was just last night – and suddenly cutting $19 million won't be easy.

The district has $32 million in reserves, but most business managers would advise against dropping that reserve all the way to $13 million, on a budget of well over $400 million.

So, it's left looking at spending cuts, which usually comes in the form of laying off teachers or school days.  

In rough numbers's, at Portland Public Schools, $1 million is about 11 teachers, and if you cut the school calendar, that's $1.3 million per school day.

Now the governor did admonish districts back in February to keep big reserves in case something bad happened to the budget. Some school districts kept more in reserves and will have less of a problem than Portland. Other districts were in worse shape, and will suffer more.  Q: Meantime, school districts are also dealing with a new set of numbers that look bad for Oregon high schools. The statewide four-year graduation rate is 66 percent. That's lower than we're used to seeing, isn't it?Rob Manning: Yes, roughly one-third of Oregon high schoolers fail to graduate with a diploma four years after entering. The rate drops below 60 percent for low-income students, and it's barely over 50 percent for students who don't speak English at home.

Graduation rates are also significantly lower for students of color. It also varies a lot deal from school district to school district.

Wealthier districts do better. Lake Oswego has an 89 percent graduation rate. So do a number of smaller rural districts with smaller high schools. The graduation rate in the Adrian School District in eastern Oregon is 95 percent, for instance. 

But the rates look worse other places – Dallas had a 44 percent graduation rate. In Redmond, it's 47 percent, and in Portland, 53 percent. However, those numbers are kind of messy and don't tell the whole story.

Q: So what is the rest of the story?

Rob Manning: The four-year graduation rate only counts students who get standard diplomas in four years – not students who leave to get modified diplomas, or GEDs, or locally-tailored alternative diplomas.

And Portland is famous for its alternative programs – and if you count students who get those modified diplomas or GEDs in four years – the graduation rate goes up to 72 percent.

Redmond's number also improves substantially if you include students who are remaining for a fifth year, often to get additional electives or college credit classes.

This year, this graduation rate is only for informational purposes, but next year – it'll be the way federal officials judge Oregon schools under No Child Left Behind.