Oregon Public Broadcasting

Oregon’s two tax measures --  66 and 67 -- could pass, according to a poll by OPB, Fox 12 and the Portland Tribune.

52 percent of respondents say they would vote for Measure 66. 

50 percent said they'd vote for Measure 67.

But as Kristian Foden-Vencil reports, with a week until the election, those percentages could easily change.

Measure 66 aims to increase income taxes for families that earn more than $250,000 a year.  And it would raise nearly $500 million to balance the current state budget.

In the poll, 39 percent of people said they'd vote against it. 

The No vote on the other tax measure --  67 -- is similar.

It would increase the minimum tax corporations pay -- from $10 to $150.  It would also change the way most corporations are taxed and raise more than $250 million  to balance the budget.

40 percent of respondents said they'll vote against it.

Pollster Tim Hibbitts says gauging the outcome is more complicated when you’re dealing with tax measures instead of political candidates.

Tim Hibbitts: "A lot of times with tax issues, they can poll at 52 or 53, two weeks out from the election. And you get this almost invisible suction that will occur in them and they will wind up losing by three or four points instead of winning."

If pressed, Hibbitts predicts success for both measures. But he says, margins are so tight he wouldn't be surprised if they failed -- or if one passed and the other didn't.

The OPB poll was conducted last week by Davis, Hibbitts & Midghall. It sampled 500 voters across geographic, political and demographic boundaries. And, says Hibbitts, it uncovered some interesting trends.

Tim Hibbitts: "The tri-county areas is pretty supportive of both measures. Women are supportive of both measures. Younger voters are supportive of both measures. Democrats are overwhelmingly supportive of both measures. Conversely, voters in the rest of the state, the measures are trailing. They're trailing heavily among Republicans, they're trailing or breaking even among men. And also voters over age 55, they're not in opposition, but it's a much, much closer race there than it is say among voters 18 to 34."

Michael Schaer is a 62-year-old cranberry farmer from Bandon -- on the Southern Coast.

As a rural, Republican, male, he fits right into Hibbitts' data set.

Michael Schaer: "These two ballot measures are definitely an assault on capitalism and you have to wonder if these people were trained by Karl Marx."

He says raising taxes when the economy is under such strain, beggars belief.

Michael Schaer: "The assault on business I just don't understand. I really don't. We need to encourage business so they can employ more people so those people in turn pay taxes."

Up in the Willamette Valley, the poll finds voters a little more open to the idea of new taxes.

Sue Coffin is a registered Independent and works for Salem's transit authority -- teaching things like defensive driving.

She says she's already returned her ballot and voted in favor of both measures. The reason:  the property tax reduction Measure 5 that Oregonians passed 20 years ago. 

Sue Coffin: "We were told that businesses would help make sure that schools were sustained if we limited their right to go for more money. Businesses have not stepped up to the plate. They continually just keep asking for less government and don't want to help pay for things."

If it seems that Coffin and the cranberry farmer are angry, that too mirrors the poll. It found only 31 percent of people think Oregon is headed in the right direction and 50 percent think it's headed in the wrong direction. 

Some blame an ineffective, non-responsive, money-wasting government.

Others point to greedy, dishonest big businesses.

But whoever you blame, the group Oregonians Against Job-Killing Taxes has been trying to focus anger against Measures 66 and 67.

Communications coordinator, Pat McCormick, thinks they've been effective and says their canvassing shows the race is tighter than the OPB poll.

Pat McCormick: "A lot of folks who are remaining undecided have, within their decision making power, the ability to change the outcome. From what we're seeing, a high percentage of those folks are inclined to vote no."

While a razor-thin win is predicted by in this poll, keep in mind there is a four percent margin of error in the results.

The results of a poll conducted this week for OPB, Fox12 and the Portland Tribune will be released Friday. 

OPB's 'Think Out Loud ,' will be discussing the two measures at a special taping Thursday night.

You can be part of the audience. Doors open at 6 pm. Show begins at 7 pm. No RSVP required and all are welcome!

Get the conversations started online now!

The show will be broadcast Friday at 9 a.m. on OPB Radio and at 9 p.m. on OPB TV.