Poll Points To Kitzhaber, Dudley Race Next Fall

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A new poll by OPB, Fox 12 and The Portland Tribune was released late Tuesday.

It finds the state treasurer's race is neck-and-neck. And it looks like former governor John Kitzhaber may have to slug it out for the state's top position with former Trail Blazer, Chris Dudley.

Kristian Foden-Vencil files this report.

Portland polling firm, Davis, Hibbitts and Midghall asked 300 registered Democrats across the state who they want as the next governor. 53 percent chose John Kitzhaber and 23 percent chose Bill Bradbury.

 Poll Results

Oregon Media Partners SurveySpring 2010Davis, Hibbitts & Midghall, Inc.

Pollster Tim Hibbitts, says Kitzhaber has maintained a solid lead throughout the race even though 22 percent remain undecided.

Tim Hibbitts: "As you filter down towards election day these undecideds are finally kind of making up their mind. And Bill's picking up some of them and John's picking up some of them. But the spread is staying basically the same. right around 30 points."

Among 300 registered Republicans polled, the governor’s race is closer. Thirty-three percent of respondents say they'd vote for Chris Dudley while 23 percent say they'd go for Allen Alley.

Former State Senator John Lim and tax activist, Bill Sizemore, who are also running, polled at eight percent and six percent respectively.

Hibbitts says the poll essentially puts Dudley in the driver's seat.

Tim Hibbitts: "This one is not quite over, but it's close. Alley really needs a fortunate combination of circumstances I think to come back and win this thing."

Things that could change a race this late might include: a big misstep by Dudley; or a decision by Alley to go negative. But that could backfire.

Tim Hibbitts: "The problem with that at this point is that unless it's something disqualifying, and I don't frankly think that there is anything in there, it really would probably blow-up in his face. Because people don't like the late hit job."

Dudley does very well in metropolitan areas. He also does a little better with men than women.

Cassie Moran is a 67-year-old wife, mother and great grandmother from Talent. She's a rural Republican and she thinks Dudley has a problem.

Cassie Moran: "We like Chris Dudley but there was no information on how he stood on abortion and that's a big concern of ours. We're pro-life and we really wouldn't want to vote for someone who's pro-choice."

OPB's poll also asked about the state treasurer's race.

Only one person is running for the Republican party -- Bend accountant Chris Telfer -- so she will take on the the winner of the Democratic primary.

In that race, the poll found 29 percent favor the appointed incumbent, Ted Wheeler, while 24 percent like state legislator, Rick Metsger.

Pollster Tim Hibbitts says the margin of error in these polls is 5.6 percent -- so the difference between the two candidates is minimal. 

Tim Hibbitts: "I think that one has a long way to go yet and I think a lot of voters aren't going to mark their ballots until the end."

Pollsters also asked: Do you think Oregon's headed in the right direction?

52 percent of Democrats said yes. But 71 percent of Republicans answered no.

Tim Hibbits: "The pretty strongly conservative base of the Republican party feels pretty deeply that the direction of the state and the direction of the country are pretty seriously off track."

Dan Swanson is a 47-year-old Republican from Newberg. He's disabled and used to teach high school. He thinks both parties are to blame.

Dan Swanson: "When the Republicans are in power the Democrats dig their heels in and won't let anything happen and same thing happens now when the Democrats are in power, the Republicans won't do anything to help. It seems like they're looking out for their own party's interest and none of them can think for themselves."

That kind of voter attitude could explain why turn-out for the May 18th primary is not expected to be large.

Secretary of State Kate Brown estimates it'll reach 37 percent. That would be one of the lowest participation rates in Oregon's primary election history.

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