Oregon Public Broadcasting

Medical marijuana dispensaries could be money-makers for the state of Oregon. But predicting the amount of that revenue is all but impossible.

The proposed pot initiative is one of nine ballot measures that a number-crunching committee is studying this month to estimate the fiscal impacts for voters. Salem Correspondent Chris Lehman reports.

Figuring out how much a ballot measure would cost the state can be an exercise in speculation.

The proposed medical marijuana law would allow people to set up dispensaries to make it easier for Oregon's 34,000 legal pot users to get the drug. The state would collect a 10 percent commission that one analyst says could add up to $20 million in the first year.

That's far beyond the $1 million it would take to oversee the program.

Oregon Treasurer Ted Wheeler said that's a guess that leaves a lot of wiggle room.

Ted Wheeler: "In truth, we can be off by basically 95 percent in our revenue estimate and still not have a fiscal impact for the state."

Another proposed ballot measure that's difficult to calculate is a mandatory minimum sentencing initiative for sex offenders and drunk drivers.

To determine the cost you have to guess how many people will continue to commit those crimes versus how many would be deterred by a lengthy prison sentence.