Oregonians See Slow Recovery Ahead

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A poll of Oregon voters shows broad agreement that economic recovery is going to be a slow process.  The poll was conducted for OPB, Fox 12 and the Portland Tribune. 

Kristian Foden-Vencil reports there's little consensus on what the state should do to speed that recovery.

Four in ten Oregonians say the state is headed in the wrong direction overall.  More than 50 percent predict the economic recovery will be both gradual and weak.

 Poll Results

Oregon Media Partners SurveySpring 2010600 Oregon ResidentsDavis, Hibbitts & Midghall, Inc.

Survey questionaire with responses

Adam Davis conducted the poll for the firm, Davis, Hibbitts and Midghall.  They reached a sample of 600 Oregonians across the state over the weekend.

Adam Davis: "If you look at it, you've got Oregonians feeling that we've bottomed out, that we're in an economic recovery, but that it's going to be a slow one."

A good example is Caleb Boak He attends Salem Bible College part-time and runs a window cleaning business with his dad. He says things have picked up a little since last year - but people are still wary about spending money.

Caleb Boak: "Window cleaning itself is not a necessity. People just use it with discretionary funds typically. So that has cut back quite considerably. But our other areas that are more necessary like power washing, and other things have increased."

Boak and other respondents feel that jobs with technology companies and green businesses are likely to lead the state out of this recession.

Only five percent felt Oregon's traditional industries, like timber and agriculture, would lead the recovery.

Pollster Adam Davis says there's also a big difference in attitudes between urban and rural Oregonians.

Adam Davis: "We have people outside of the metro area being more negative about where the economy is -- than people living in the metro area for example."

While most Oregonians seem to agree that it's going to be a long, slow recovery, they're sharply divided on what the state should do about it.

For example, in the 2011-13 state budget, the legislature will have to close a $2.5 billion deficit.

Davis says there's essentially a three-way split about what to do: 25 percent favor raising taxes to pay for it; 33 percent say the money should all come from cuts in services; and another 33 percent say both cuts and higher taxes are neccessary.

Adam Davis: 'This portends a very difficult legislative session, possibly in 2011. The state's very divided on this."

Alice Langer is 80 years old and living in Milton Freewater. She says the economy is getting a little better -- but worries that if taxes are raised, it's just going to delay the recovery.

Alice Langer: "Well, if they had to do something, I guess cut them. Because more taxes aren't going to help."

Jim Whitney: "I think modification of the tax structure as well as some economizing on the part of the state."

Jim Whitney is a carpenter in Dundee. He thinks a little bit of both -- higher taxes and cuts -- should do the job. He's also bullish on Oregon.

Jim Whitney: "As the economy picks up the revenues of course will flow into the state."

The three-way split on what the state should do is also evident when talking to  Oregonians about the kicker - the state's unique tax refund law.

OPB's poll asked whether half the kicker should be put into a 'rainy day' fund until it reaches a healthy balance:  29 percent strongly oppose the idea; 31 percent strongly favor the idea and 36 percent took the middle ground.

The idea was put forward by Governor Ted Kulongoski last year. But legislative leadership turned it down.

So, if this poll is any indication, politicians are going to have their work cut out for them when they convene next January.

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