Oregon Public Broadcasting

Oregon may be past the deepest point of its recession, state economists said Thursday. But the number crunchers warned lawmakers not to celebrate just yet. Salem Correspondent Chris Lehman reports.

In many ways the newest revenue forecast sounds familiar.

Income tax revenue is projected to be lower than previously thought. But this time, the drop is small enough that lawmakers aren't being forced to make any budget cuts for now.

And state economist Tom Potiowsky says the financial free fall in Oregon may soon be over.

Tom Potiowsky: “The economic recovery should begin in the fall of this year. Growth, though, is going to be rather slow. The expectation is -- you've probably heard the phrase -- the jobless recovery. This is going to be a relatively slow recovery period.”

Another question mark at this point is the fate of a pair of tax increases lawmakers passed to balance the budget.

A business-funded group is collecting signatures to try to force a referendum vote in January.

If the taxes are overturned, lawmakers would have to find ways to plug an additional $780 million gap in the state budget.

New economic numbers from the state of Washington say the unemployment rate is still rising, but is expected to peak sometime next year.

Economists there predicted the rate won't go as high as previously thought.