Oregon Public Broadcasting

We've been hearing a lot lately from pundits who predict a wave of GOP victories this November.

They say it could even be enough to wrestle Congress away from the Democrats.

In Oregon, Republicans are also predicting victories in the state legislature. But the question is whether it will be enough to shift the balance of power in Salem.

Democrats have a strong majority in both the House and the Senate. Chris Lehman handicaps what's in store for legislative races this year.

2008 was a great year to be a Democratic candidate. And not just Barack Obama. It was so good for Democrats that in Oregon, the party won a legislative seat east of the Cascades, a region dominated by Republicans.

Two years later, that Representative, Judy Stiegler has a target on her back. Her Republican opponent is out-raising and out-spending her.

Judy Stiegler: "I think that speaks to the fact that this is a targeted race, quite frankly."

But Stiegler says she isn't worried about a GOP wave potentially sweeping the nation. And she doesn't think her success depends on Democrats further up the ballot doing well.

Judy Stiegler:  "I don't get the sense that I need to ride some coattails. I think I'm going to be elected or not elected pretty much on my own merits."

Stiegler's Republican challenger is Bend attorney Jason Conger. He's been running ads like this one.

Announcer on ad:  "The legislature's failing us at every turn. But we have a better choice. Jason Conger for state representative."

Conger is a former Congressional aide making his first run for state office.

Jason Conger: "The message that I hope will resonate with people is let's look at where we're headed, let's look at where the current leadership is taking us, and if you like it and you think we're headed in the right direction, well, then I guess you want to stick with them."

Conger is hoping to tap into whatever anti-incumbent sentiment is out there this year. And there's plenty of it, says Portland pollster Tim Hibbits.

Tim Hibbits: "Make no mistake. There's a lot of unhappiness out there. And I think at this point that's going to lead to a better election cycle for Republicans in Oregon than they've seen for a while."

But Hibbits doesn't predict as huge a GOP wave as might happen elsewhere. For one thing, he says, the Tea Party movement hasn't made major inroads in Oregon.

Democrats still hold a wide edge in voter registration. And Hibbits says Democrats generally have better get-out-the-vote strategies. But then again....

Tim Hibbits: "The one thing that you have to keep in mind is, if a wave election develops for one party or the other, a lot of those advantages go by the wayside."

And even a small wave -- a miniature tsunami, if you will -- could affect the balance of power in the Oregon legislature.

Democrats right now have a broad ability to advance their agenda with so-called supermajorities in both chambers. House Speaker Dave Hunt says he's not worried about his party falling victim to a national trend toward Republicans.

Dave Hunt: "Oregonians are ruggedly independent, and I think Oregonians will vote for who they think is best serving them and will best serve them into the future."

Hunt wouldn't predict how many seats Democrats would gain or lose. His Republican counterpart, Bruce Hanna, is more bold in that respect.

Bruce Hanna: "I would hope to see a minimum of five incremental seats gained by the Republicans in the House."

That would eliminate the Democrats' supermajority, but it wouldn't be enough to make Bruce Hanna Speaker. Republicans most recently controlled the Oregon House in 2005.