Oregon Public Broadcasting

Forecasting salmon runs is trickier than even predicting the weather or the economy. But the federal ocean science agency NOAA says it's refined its ability to forecast Pacific salmon returns.

When it comes to salmon survival, the Pacific Ocean has often been compared to a black box.

Biologists can track every little step baby salmon take from egg to estuary. But when the fish swim out to sea, a lot of them simply disappear until it’s time to spawn years later.

Now NOAA oceanographer Bill Peterson says the black box analogy is breaking down.

Bill Peterson: “We’re scratching that black paint away so we can actually see inside that box to see what’s really going on.”

Peterson extrapolates how salmon are faring in the ocean by tracking water temperatures and food abundance.

He and colleagues sample the ocean every two weeks off Newport, Oregon. The data goes into salmon return forecasts -- not just months ahead, but years into the future.

Their tables show next year’s returns looking so-so, followed by very good fishing in 2012-13.