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Idaho Congressman Walt Minnick finds himself in an unusual position. He's a Democrat in a red state in a year when Republicans are expected to pick up Congressional seats.

Bryan McQuide: "He should be in a really tight race, but he's not."

University of Idaho political science professor Bryan McQuide says Minnick has become a high-profile Blue Dog Democrat, in his short time in office.

And Democratic leaders don't appear to be worried about Walt Minnick's chances this year.

Doug Nadvornick / Northwest News Network

Rep. Walt Minnick talks farm issues at a 4-H awards ceremony at a county fair in Sandpoint, Idaho.

County fairs, like this one in Sandpoint, Idaho, are good places for candidates to meet constituents.

Idaho Democratic Congressman Walt Minnick has a fist full of ribbons that he's handing out to young 4-H contest winners.

Walt Minnick: "Fairs are fun. You get to see ordinary people doing things that are important and in environments where they don't mind talking. So I spend as much time as I can at fairs."

Minnick is dressed in blue jeans and a button down shirt. He clearly looks relaxed, not like a freshman Congressman facing re-election.

After he finishes with the young people, Minnick goes back to the fair building to mingle some more.

Two years ago, Minnick won this north Idaho county on his way to victory in the state's First Congressional District. He rode the Obama wave and unseated an incumbent Republican.

It was a surprise, given that this district mostly elects Republicans.

Now it's two years later and Minnick is riding on the support of voters like Bev Newsham.

Bev Newsham: "He knows Idaho. He knows what the people are like. He's just a real person that's really concerned about north Idaho issues."

Newsham says she'll vote for Minnick in November. In fact, two polls this summer show the congressman has a healthy lead over his Republican challenger, Raul Labrador.

A survey done for the Idaho State Hospital Association showed Minnick with a 23-point lead. Even a poll done by the Labrador campaign showed Minnick ahead by 10 points.

Nathan Gonzales from the Rothenberg Political Report credits two factors. He says, strategically, Republicans may have picked the wrong candidate during their primary in May.

He says many in the GOP were more excited about former military officer Vaughn Ward. But he lost the primary after his campaign was rocked by allegations of plagiarism.

Nathan Gonzales: "Now that Labrador has the nomination, I think there's just less confidence that he's putting together the kind of campaign necessary to defeat an incumbent member of Congress."

Gonzales says Minnick also benefits from his willingness to buck his party's leadership.

Nathan Gonzales: "You know, if the speaker were to put a peanut butter-and-jelly sandwich on the floor of the House, he'd probably vote against that."

But diehard Republicans like Dennis Engelhardt are skeptical about Minnick's image as a Democratic maverick. Engelhardt mans the Republican Party booth at the county fair in Sandpoint.

He says many in his party think Minnick is being opportunistic when he breaks party ranks.

Dennis Engelhardt: "The perception is that he did so when he had permission from the leadership to make those votes. And, from a Republican standpoint, if he's going to speak, he should speak loudly and clearly and at the beginning, as opposed to waiting."

Despite Minnick's lead in the polls, Republicans are gearing up for a tough fall campaign.

Glory Ward: "Hi, can I speak to Ralph please?"

In Coeur d'Alene, Republican campaign volunteer Glory Ward quizzes a voter on the phone.

Glory Ward: "In the upcoming election for Congress, will you be selecting Republican Raul Labrador?"

Labrador acknowledges Minnick's huge advantage in fundraising, more than 10-to-one right now.

But, even so, Labrador thinks he'll narrow the money gap and make the campaign more competitive as the election draws near.

Raul Labrador: "You're going to see outside groups spending money on this race. People want this seat back for the Republican Party and I think you're going to see that we're going to have a very safe margin, five points."

That's Labrador predicting victory. He's hoping to ride into Congress on the same sort of political wave that swept Minnick into office two years ago.

But Labrador doesn't appear to be getting much help from the national Republican Congressional Committee. Its initial round of television ads doesn't target the race in north Idaho.