Oregon Public Broadcasting

A state forecast predicts Oregon's prison population will rise in coming years.

Recent projections suggested significantly lower numbers of incarcerated people, thanks to a delay in mandatory sentencing for certain property crimes.

But now, Lonn Hoklin with the Department of Administrative Services says an uptick in prison population is underway. Lonn Hoklin:  "There'll be some slow growth in the prison population through to about late 2011, we'll go up from about 4000 total prison population now, to maybe a much as 14,700, within a couple years."

That takes the forecast to 2011. By 2019, the state may have as many as 37,000 prisoners total.

The forecast is based on many factors, including population growth and crime rates.

Hoklin says the eventual implementation of sentences called for in Measure 57 will account for some of the projected increase.

The forecast also reflects a slower-than-expected flow of criminal cases through the court system.

Hoklin says it's too soon to say whether more prisons will be needed.