Oregon Public Broadcasting

Professional economists tend to judge the state of things with big numbers. 

Think of the unemployment rate, gross domestic product, and stuff like that. But often we can see the state of the economy with our own eyes. 

In a recent public radio poll, we asked people about their own personal economic indicators.

Tom Banse reports some of the less conventional gauges you told us about are pointing up.

Finish this sentence:  "Indicators for me that the economy is getting better or worse is when I see or hear ____ ."

That's what we asked 1200 random people in Oregon, Washington, and Idaho.

In Astoria, retiree Emmy Roach has only to look out her window for a revealing answer.

Emmy Roach: "I live about a block off of the Columbia River.  One of the things I noticed when things started getting bad was the container ships that come in and out were getting less and less containers on board.  At one point they were practically empty."

Roach deduces how many of the containers on deck are empty or full by how low a ship rides in the water. She sees progress.

Emmy Roach: "They're coming in heavier and heavier every month now.  It makes me feel good that something is moving again. It may take a while for it to trickle down to the consumers, but I can see that credit is loosening up and stores are buying inventory again."

On a related note, several of those polled said they'll know if the economy is on the mend when more trains pass through town.

Freight rail traffic remains down according to figures provided by the Association of American Railroads.

A Seattle area man told us he'll know the economy is getting better when his "priest stops using the unemployed as a sign of the times in his homilies."  Other poll respondents in Washington and Idaho gauge the economy by crowds dining out at expensive restaurants or lines at the drive-thru.  One Idaho couple thought it telling that two Fridays in a row they faced a minimum half hour wait at every restaurant they tried.

Then there's what you might call the Starbucks indicator.

Office manager David Severns drives past one of the iconic coffee shops on his way to work in Corvallis every morning.

David Severns: "When I see people going to Starbucks for four dollar coffee that's a good indicator for me that things are starting to look up a little."

By this measure, the economy hit bottom in the second half of last year and perked up just in the last month.  David's personal observations notably correlate with a positive earnings report from Starbucks' corporate bigwigs.

For our survey, Northwest public radio stations collaborated with the Northwest Health Foundation and the polling firm Davis, Hibbitts and Midghall. 

By far, the most common answer we got involved job numbers, layoffs or hiring.  Southern Idaho mother Nancy Martin told us she'll know the economy is getting better when her "3 unemployed children have found work."

Nancy Martin: "The kids have had, are getting a few interviews here in the last two weeks."

Pollster Su Midghall says unemployment clearly is the dominant indicator the average person looks to.

Su Midghall: "You see mention of people spending and buying, just overall consumer numbers. That data while it's helpful, it's nowhere near helpful to folks that the economy is getting better until they hear numbers about employment rates."

Economists consider unemployment to be a lagging indicator.  That means the public mood will lag behind the actual state of the economy as long as people take their cues from the jobless rate.