Oregon Public Broadcasting

Washington voters Tuesday are deciding two controversial ballot measures.

Referendum 71 deals with gay domestic partnerships.

Initiative 1033 would cap government revenues and cut property taxes.

But is the money spent on these measures a good predictor of their outcomes at the ballot box?  Austin Jenkins reports.

If you were to go on campaign finance reports alone, it looks like domestic partnerships in Washington will be expanded and voters will reject initiative king Tim Eyman's cap on government.

That's because that's where the money is. Gay rights supporters have raised more than $2 million -- more than four times their opponents.

While the labor-backed No on 1033 campaign has amassed a nearly $3.5 million war chest. But political scientist Todd Donovan at Western Washington University cautions against this logic.

Todd Donovan: "That assumes a pretty direct relationship between spending on ballot initiatives and the outcomes and us academic geeks go back and forth about how concrete that relationship really is, but it might not be as powerful as we expect."

Donovan notes Eyman is routinely outspent by opponents -- and yet he's passed numerous initiatives over the last 12 years. This year though spending trends have matched recent polls.