Oregon Public Broadcasting

If government stimulus money is aimed at giving the economy a boost, then government layoffs could have the opposite effect.

As Oregon lawmakers hash out the details of the state’s next two-year budget, one thing seems certain:  Many public employees will lose their jobs.  Lawmakers say laying off state workers is an inevitable consequence of a $4 billion budget deficit.  Salem correspondent Chris Lehman reports.

When legislative budget writers unveiled their long-awaited spending plan, the first question from reporters was “How many jobs will be lost?”.

Peter Buckley:  “1700 jobs.”

Democratic House budget writer Peter Buckley was quick to point out that number only includes people working directly for state government.  He acknowledged it doesn’t include the nearly 6000 home care and day care workers that could lose their paychecks if their state funding is slashed.  

One of those workers fearing for her future is Bobi Sotin of North Bend.  She provides in-home care for frail seniors who need assistance.

Bobi Sotin:  “Bathing or grooming or cooking their meals, or doing their laundry, or taking them to the store.”

Sotin says she’d likely lose most of her paycheck if the current budget proposal stands. But more importantly, she says she’s worried about what will happen to the two elderly women she’s currently caring for.

Bobi Sotin: “Usually if they have these services it’s because they need it, not because they just gave it to them.”

Sotin has helped care for various seniors for about eight years now.  She makes $10.20 an hour, but it’s the medical insurance that comes with the job that Sotin really values. She’s diabetic, so losing health insurance could be economically devastating.

Bobi Sotin: “I don’t know what’s going to happen.  It’s very scary, you know, when you’re sitting there thinking that you know, two months from now I may not have my health insurance, or three months from now, or four months from now.”

That uncertainty is being felt by thousands of other state-funded home care workers.  It’s also shared by state employees in nearly every state agency in Oregon.

Arthur Towers is a lobbyist for the largest state employees union, SEIU Local 503.  He says the impact of the layoffs will go beyond just the workers getting a pink slip.

Arthur Towers: “If we lay off lots of workers, then those who are behind will get further and further behind in their work, and so you’re in a situation where the quality of those services are going to be diminished.”

Towers is pushing for lawmakers to avoid deep cuts by raising taxes.

Majority Democrats have proposed about $800 million in higher taxes on corporations and the wealthy, but the employees union and some social service advocates say that number is too small.  

Ironically, the potential layoffs come as recent unemployment numbers show that government is one of the strongest job sectors in Oregon.  While private sector jobs have declined, public sector jobs in Oregon have gained about 2 percent over the past year.  

Art Ayre of the Oregon Employment Department says that’s in line with previous economic downturns.

Art Ayre: “Government tends to lag the rest of the economy going down into a recession.  And it also lags typically coming back out of the recession.  So it takes a while for an economic downturn to have the employment impact on government that it has on the private sector.”

Ayre says it’s hard to predict how this many government layoffs will affect Oregon’s economy.  But he did have one theoretical calculation. 

If all of the planned budget-related layoffs happened at once, Oregon’s 12 percent unemployment rate would jump to about 12.5 percent.