Oregon Public Broadcasting

The new crop of elected officials have yet to finish their first hundred days in office. But it's not too soon for the next cohort of hopefuls to start getting in shape for statewide elections -- in 2010.

April Baer has this report on what it may cost to run for Governor next year, and how that could shape the race.

Democrat Steve Novick has been doing the math on what it would cost to run for Governor, based on a few of the prior  races. It’s not cheap.

Steve Novick   "In the last race, the Governor spent I think about $4.5 million. Ron Saxton raised $8 million. I would think you’d need to be thinking in those terms."

Novick says he’s not ready to start a campaign and begin raising money yet, but has started to  lay the policy groundwork for a run.

Novick says he’ll make a decision soon.  No serious contender can afford to be idle this spring, in part because the race will be costly.

Ted Kulongoski is leaving Mahonia Hall. The last time the Governor’s seat was open, in 2002, much money was raised and spent, but with mixed results.

Jim Moore  "When there are open seats, we tend to get a lot more money coming in."

Jim Moore is a Professor of Politics and Government at Pacific University.

Jim Moore   "The last time we had something kind of similar to this was in 2002--open seat, John Kitzhaber was leaving office. We ended up with three strong credible Demcrats, and three strong, credible Republicans a year before the election  going across the state."

While a lot of cash was raised, Moore remembers that campaign donations essentially split among the candidates, leaving no clear fundraising heavyweight. Also, in 2002 traditional donors weren't giving as much as in years past, because of an economic recession. Sound familiar?

Flash forward to this year. One candidate has already filed papers to start raising and spending for 2010.

Allen Alley "My philosophy would be: I have to enable us to have a thriving economy."

Allen Alley is a high-tech Republican entrepreneur who crossed over to advise Oregon’s Democratic Governor, Ted Kulongoski. Republican oddsmakers believe Alley will have a shot, if bigger fish like Congressman Greg Walden stay out of the race.

Walden's considered by many to be the kind of speaker and fundraiser who'd have a good chance of bringing in the money for a serious campaign. He tells OPB he hasn't made a decision, nor has he ruled out a run.

Jason Atkinson, a young, energetic Republican from Central Point, is also likely to make a second run for Governor next year.

Among Democrats, Congressman  Peter Defazio is definitely interested in the race. Back in October, he said he’s not making up his mind 'til he finishes work on a big federal transportation bill.

Peter Defazio  "If we can get the bill done by the deadline, October 1st, then I'm kind of a free man."

Free to consider his primary chances, that is, against the likes of Former Secretary of State Bill Bradbury, also an experienced campaigner, and maybe also State Senate President Peter Courtney.