Oregon Public Broadcasting

As Oregon voters cast their ballots, the curtain is coming down on a contest that drew high expectations. But the race for the 5th Congressional District has been a relatively tame one, despite the millions spend on it. April Baer reports.

When Congressional Quarterly changed its rating of  the race from "Democrat Leaning" to "Democrat Favored" last week, it  confirmed what many observers have known for weeks: the sizzle has fizzled.

Back in February, when incumbent Congresswoman Darlene Hooley, a Democrat, announced her retirement, some were expecting a world-class ruckus. 

The 5th District is  diverse -- home to Polk County farmers, West Linn soccer moms, and coastal fishermen. 

The prospect of an open seat on the same ballot as a contested presidential race was too much for the Democratic and Republican parties to resist. And if you measured the race by broadcast ads alone, you might assume the race was going full-tilt.

Sound from Erickson/Schrader ads: "Our taxes are scheduled to go up. Mike Erickson will do something about it!"  crossfade to "I"m Kurt Schrader, and I approved this message..."

But, as is often the case, the ads don't tell the whole story. Republican Mike Erickson and Democrat Kurt Schrader have been running one of the quieter campaigns of the season.

The most recent poll on the race to be made public was paid for by KATU TV, and conducted by Survey USA.

Its results showed voters in mid-October leaning toward Democrat Kurt Schrader by a thirteen point margin. But Schrader isn't taking any chances.

Kurt Schrader: "Ah, but see my own pollsters two weeks ago, with, I think a much more accurate poll that reflects the true undecided votes, had it a lot closer."

Schrader wouldn't say how much closer, but added he would not take the last days of the campaign for granted. Kurt Schrader's cautious nature may have a lot to do with the position he finds himself in today.

Never afraid to show his wonky side, he recently turned up at this forum organized by Oregonians for Health Security.

Kurt Schrader: "I think this is a problems that’s accentuated in rural Oregon, related to primary care providers, there's no incentive for providers under the current system...." 

A veterinarian by trade, Schrader and his wife Martha are well-known for their work in elected office. His campaign hasn't been shy about the nickname the candidate earned in the legislature for his frugality with state funds: "Darth Schrader."  

And in recent weeks, he's even picked up political and fundraising support from some timber executives, who typically lean Republican.

Jim Pasero: "Obviously, the year is a bad year for Republicans. The brand is bad."

Jim Pasero is the publisher of Brainstorm Northwest, a conservative news magazine based in Lake Oswego, the heart of the 5th District.

Pasero thinks it would have been tough for any Republican to make a go of it. He points to Senator Gordon Smith's uphill battle to maintain his seat.

Erickson started his own company helping other businesses reduce costs and increase efficiency and is now  a self-made millionaire. This is his second run at the 5th.

He's been tripped up by ethics issues more than once,  including allegations during the primary that he paid for a girlfriend's abortion. Later, his  humanitarian visit to Cuba came under scrutiny, with critics saying it looked more like a leisure trip. 

Brainstorm publisher Jim Pasero thinks Erickson's problems go beyond the ethics issues.

Jim Pasero: "When the Oregonian and other media sources weren't ripping him to shreds, he ran a very traditional Republican campaign, in the same kind of year when McCain and Palin were running and winning the nomination as mavericks. I haven't seen much in his message that would stand out [sic] that he's an unusual Republican."

On paper, Mike Erickson looked like the kind of candidate who could turn things around for Oregon's cash-poor Republican party. But this year's 5th District race hasn't evolved into the competitive, issue-based discussion some voters had hoped for.

Jeff Harvey with the Erickson campaign says his candidate has been selective about his appearances and is still fighting hard.

Jeff Harvey: "We're really focusing this last week on the get-out-the-vote program. This election is going to come down to voter turnout, and the resonating messages with voters who are undecided."

For his part, Kurt Schrader says he's been talking about issues as often as possible.  He says that regardless of the number of appearances Erickson has made he's had a chance to make his case.

Kurt Schrader: "End of the day, I have always had faith in the voters. When they see stuff that doesn't make sense and it's just too crazy to believe. They usually make good judgments."

The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee was prepared to spend big on Schrader's behalf, but this fall the DCCC dropped two pre-paid slots for broadcast ads.

Many took this as a sign the cash was needed for other more competitive races.

Schrader says he's not happy about that. But FEC filings show he has money to spend on more ads, if he needs them.