Oregon Public Broadcasting

Feeling any déjà vu this election season?

Once again Washington State’s governor’s race pits Democrat Chris Gregoire against Republican Dino Rossi. And once again the race is a dead heat.

But this time Gregoire is the incumbent in a blue state in a year when Democrats are favored. So why is she in a neck-and-neck fight to keep her job?

Correspondent Austin Jenkins asked voters in Gig Harbor, Washington.

Austin Jenkins: “Gig Harbor is in the heart of the 26th legislative district. It’s a classic swing district just across the Narrows Bridge from Tacoma. I’m standing in shopping center parking lot, there’s a QFC, a Starbucks, a Rite Aid. I’ve come here to see what voters are saying about the Washington State Governor’s race.”

Austin Jenkins: “Who are you going to vote for and why?”

Ken Morrison: “Dino Rossi.”

Ken Morrison sells sand and gravel landscape supplies. He describes himself as a conservative. Rossi also won his vote four years ago. But he votes for the occasional Democrat too.

Gregoire though has not impressed him.

Ken Morrison: “State deficit is too high. So that’s probably my main point of contention with her is too much spending. Let’s spend less, let’s tax less.”

In this informal survey of voters, Rossi had about a two to one advantage over Gregoire. Several voters mentioned they feel Rossi was robbed of the election back in 2004 when Gregoire won by 133 votes.

Another observation: men were more likely to support Rossi, women Gregoire – whose name continues to trip up voters like Sandi McCord.

Sandi McCord: “I’m going to vote for Gregory, Greger.”

Austin Jenkins: “Gregoire.”

Sandi McCord: “Greg-wire because she supports education and I like what she’s doing with public services and I just think she’s doing a great job.”

McCord also voted for Gregoire four years ago. She says she doesn’t like Rossi’s politics and doesn’t trust him.

Polls continue to show the Washington State governor’s race is a virtual tie. In fact, some national pundits call this the most competitive gubernatorial race in the country.

That’s surprising because Gregoire has the power of incumbency. She’s a Democrat in a state that hasn’t elected a Republican governor in nearly 25-years. And this is a year when the odds favor Democrats nationally.

Seattle talk radio host John Carlson has a theory. He ran unsuccessfully for governor as a Republican eight years ago. Speaking by cell phone, he says the Barack Obama change mantra may in fact be hurting Gregoire.

John Carlson: “If people want change you might actually see a lot of ticket splitting just as you did in 1964 when the voters voted for Lyndon Johnson for president in Washington, but they also voted for a new Republican governor Dan Evans.”

The reverse happened in 1984, when Washington voters went for Ronald Reagan, but elected Democrat Booth Gardner as governor. Carlson says another factor in the Rossi-Gregoire rematch is the ability of the candidates to connect with voters.

John Carlson: “The talent and the ability to convey your message. Barack Obama does that so well on the national stage. I think Dino Rossi does it better than Chris Gregoire on the Washington State stage.”

Washington State University political science professor Lance LeLoup agrees the charisma gap has been a real challenge for Gregoire. But given all of her advantages he predicts she will prevail come November.

Lance LeLoup: “I think in the end with the strength of the Obama ticket nationally, I think it’s going to help Governor Gregoire win. I don’t think it’s going to be a huge margin. But I’m sure it will be bigger than it was last time.”

With the election less than three weeks away, the two campaigns are engaged in an ad war aimed at winning the dwindling number of undecided voters.

So far the candidates and their special interest backers have raised a record nearly $40 million for this high-stakes rematch.