Oregon Public Broadcasting

Swing states are the key focus in the presidential election. But within each state there are swing districts.

And that’s where the battle could be won or lost in Washington State’s super-heated rematch for governor.

Four years ago, Republican Dino Rossi lost to Democrat Chris Gregoire by just 133 votes. Now Rossi is back - and once again the race is razor thin. Olympia correspondent Austin Jenkins has the political calculus.

Dino Rossi is quick to say this rematch is not a grudge match. On the stump he says, it’s about ending a nearly 25-year reign by Democratic governors in Washington State.

Dino Rossi: “What this is about is changing the culture and direction of state government for a generation.”

Rossi’s audience on this day: mostly business people at a Rotary breakfast in Bellevue on Seattle’s Eastside. He tells them how he turned $200 into his first million by the time he was in his early thirties. This Horatio Alger-esque story wins nods from the business types in the audience.

Dino Rossi: “I come from a world of no salary, no benefits. If you don’t work, you don’t eat. I understand the free enterprise system. I’ve actually signed the front page of a paycheck.”

Part of the reason Republicans have had difficulty winning the governor’s seat in Washington State is they’ve been losing ground in places like Bellevue and other pockets of swing voters.

Chris Vance knows this dynamic well as a former Republican Party Chair.

Chris Vance: “A Republican statewide candidate has to win in these suburban legislative districts that Republican legislative candidates have been losing.”

Vance says Rossi can do this by appealing to independent-minded voters who aren’t afraid to split their ticket.

Chris Vance: “One of the huge factors in this campaign is going to be how many Obama-Rossi voters are there? How many people are going to turn out with the desire to vote for change supporting Barack Obama and then supporting change in Olympia by voting for Dino Rossi?”

To encourage that idea, an electronic billboard along Interstate 5 near Tacoma makes a pitch for an Obama-Rossi vote by linking change in Washington, D.C. to change in Washington State.

So where does that leave incumbent Democrat Chris Gregoire? She too is trolling for votes in the same suburbs as Rossi.

Chris Gregoire: “Are we ready to win the Eastside?”

At a recent Democratic fundraiser in Bellevue, Gregoire attacked Rossi as a social conservative and invoked the same themes as Hillary Clinton on healthcare.

Chris Gregoire: “We shouldn’t see healthcare as a perk or a privilege for the rich and the few it is a right for every single American.”

Gregoire has to do well in Seattle’s Eastside suburbs in order win big in King County – the state’s most populous. In fact, Democratic strategists say Gregoire needs to win sixty percent or better here.

Paul Berendt is a former Democratic Party Chair.

Paul Berendt: “In 2004 Gregoire didn’t do quite as well in King County and some of the base Democratic counties as someone like John Kerry did so one of the Governor’s biggest challenges this year is to get those numbers up.”

Berendt says Gregoire also needs to win one of the two other major Puget Sound counties – Tacoma’s Pierce or Everett’s Snohomish. She lost both last time around.

Usually Democrats are very focused on voter turnout. This year Berendt has a different focus: more than 200,000 new voters.

Paul Berendt: “This is a very important election and getting people to turn out and vote is not going to be our primary challenge. What Democrats have to do is they have got to make sure that the people who are voting vote the entire ticket.”

The fight in the swing districts mirrors the battle statewide – once again it’s too close to call. That means, as in 2004, we may not know on election night who won the race.