Will China Quake Shake-Up Push For Oregon School Improvements?

EARTHQUAKE  EDUCATION 

By Rob Manning

Salem, OR  June 9, 2008 9:10 a.m.

Nearly a month after an earthquake killed thousands of children in China, Oregon appears to be making a quiet push to improve schools here.

The Cascadia Subduction Zone’s fault line lies just off of Oregon’s coast. It’s capable of a quake even larger than the catastrophic tremor in Sichuan Province, with potentially devastating consequences.

Predictions of a calamity in Oregon date back further than the China quake, though. And as Rob Manning reports, while there are signs of action, the slow progress is testing the patience of some Oregon leaders.

13 months ago, Oregon Senate President, Peter Courtney, stood in front of North Salem High School with a new report in his hands. It warned that more than one-thousand publlic school buildings had a good chance of collapsing if a sizable earthquake struck. North Salem was one of them.

Peter Courtney: “We know that today, for the first time, we have science that tells us about how many of our school buildings, as well as other buildings are at risk, and it’s time to make them safe, in terms of at least our schools, make our children safe, from the big hit that we know is coming.”

A year later, in Courtney’s office, the 2007 earthquake report is in his hands.

Peter Courtney: “We’re no better off today than we were then. And we were in a very bad situation, kids were very much at risk then.”

If anything, the earthquake danger has gotten more troubling. Courtney says the China quake horrified him.

Peter Courtney: “That terrifyingly shows what can happen, when your schools aren’t ready to take the hit. They’ve  lost thousands and thousands of people over there, and thousands and thousands of children have been crushed to death or smothered to death, because of rubble that came down around them. And we’re right there.”

In addition, new scientific information confirms some of the worst numbers that advocates like Courtney have been hearing about for years. Yumei Wang is an earthquake engineer with Oregon’s  Department of Geology and Mineral Industries.

Yumei Wang: “The new maps that the U.S. Geological Survey came out with last month indicate that a higher likelihood of a Cascadia Subduction Zone earthquake than in their earlier maps. So that is significant.”

But the China quake, and the news from the USGS are really reminders of a problem that Oregonians have known of for years. Geologists predict that a quake is inevitable, eventually, but it’s a one-in-seven chance in the next 50 years. And, the price tag to fix schoolsis enormous – in the billion-dollar range.

North Salem High School looks much the way it did a  year ago, when Courtney held his press conference. Seniors are in their caps and gowns, rehearsing graduation and getting pictures taken.

The Salem-Keizer district has put the biggest school bond in state history on the ballot for the fall, but even if that passes it won’t deal with earthquake safety much at all.

Salem-Keizer construction manager, Bruce Lathers, says the bond’s $242 million is not enough to cover everything.

Bruce Lathers: “We have all sorts of needs, we are not able to fund our needs.  OK?”

Lathers says there are times that schools will perform seismic upgrades –  when they’re replacing roofs, or building new schools or additions. He says even identifying the seismic problems is difficult.

Rob Manning: “Did you have something you wanted to show me?”

Bruce Lathers: “Yes, and it kind of proves a point. We're going to go outside."

Lathers and I pause on the sidewalk, facing a long brick wall. It pretty much looks the same from one end to the other, to me.

Bruce Lathers: “Most people wouldn’t notice, but that’s fully seismically compliant, probably with the ’98 codes, which are basically, it’s compliant. This part of the building, in all likelihood is not, but to determine that you have to destructively go into it.”

So, Lathers says it would cost him hundreds of thousands to dig into the walls and ceilings. And then it would be still more money to come up with repair and retrofit designs.

To deal with this fiscal shortfall, Oregon voters gave lawmakers the constitutional authority to post bonds to pay for seismic upgrades in schools and buildings for first responders. That was in 2002. But now, more than five years later, no such bond has been sold, and school districts have gotten no money.

Senate President Peter Courtney is losing patience.

Peter Courtney: “The fact is, we’re just having conversations. These conversations are going to appear pretty meaningless and they’re going to enrage people if we get hit with one of these quakes, and we haven’t spent the money that we have allocated.”

The governor’s office takes a less strident tone. The governor's spokeswoman, Jillian Schoene,  explains that the 2003 recession stalled spending.

Then there was the earthquake survey between 2005 and 2007, and lawmakers didn't want to spend money before they knew what was in that. But there was no bond posted in 2007, because they hadn't funded the bond supervisor position to distribute the money. That person was just hired.

So now, education and earthquake safety advocates are pressing for a $200 million bond in 2009 for schools and emergency facilities.

Deputy state schools’ superintendent Ed Dennis says the money would start with the most obvious problems.

Ed Dennis: “We have some buildings that are clearly identified, as areas of greatest risk or need – the induction of the tsunami, so in the coastal zone, and then some other buildings.”

Dennis says some of the money could help with the kind of analysis that Salem-Keizer officials say is needed.

Observers doubt that lawmakers will approve the entire $200 million bond authorization.

In the end, Oregon could get some federal help.

FEMA has already assisted with recent work on Oregon college buildings. Also, the House of Representatives passed a bill last week, which would bring $64 million to Oregon for public school construction, if it’s signed into law.

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